Sunday's debacle in College Park forces us to acknowledge that, yes, our Heels are mortal and very well could bow out early. I hate to talk about this, because it makes me feel like less of a fan, but the truth is the truth, and the truth is this team has taken a fall lately, going 4-3 in the last seven games. Here's what those three losses have shown us.
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Brandan Wright - Brandan Wright was darn close to becoming my favorite current UNC player early on. He was a block machine, he dunked, he played defense. His only problem? He couldn't hit a free throw if the basket were four feet wide. Since the start of ACC play, and since he became pretty much the consensus third pick in this year's draft, however, he's become complacent, half-assed on d, and still can't hit free throws. The only nice thing is that he still dunks. So long as his focus is the NBA draft and he pulls back on the reins to make sure that the doesn't get hurt and lower his draft stock, the team is hurt with him. Unless things pick up, he could actually become a liability in March.
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Youth - This is quite the paradox. Last year, a good part of the reason that UNC was able to overcome Puke in Cameron Indoor and play so close in the Dean Dome was (aside from depth) the fact that the guys were so young, that some of them didn't seem to grasp the gravity of the rivalry and just played Dook as it if was just another team. This year, however, the youth seems to be getting to them at times. They play in close games and panic, because that's what young guys do. It's not like high school where every team they played had nothing on them. They're playing other high school stars and it gets to them at times. That could bite this team if they play a senior-laden mid-major or major team that's been there and can hold its composure better.
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Foul shots - Season-long, the team has made 70.6 percent of its free throws. Not good. For the most part, it hasn't killed them. But in their losses, they flat-out haven't taken advantage of their chances. Maryland and VaTech part two were the best examples, where the game came down to missed free throws by Tyler and B-Wright. In close games, you need to make those shots, especially during the tournament, when there's no saying how much the refs will or won't let you get away with.
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Poor shot selection - Wayne Ellington has one of the purest strokes I've ever seen. That said, there are times when he couldn't have worse shot selection; State, VaTech part two and Maryland come to mind. Reyshawn and Tyler are not immune either. Reyshawn and Wayne are most often guilty of hoisting three-point shots when they're entirely unnecessary as noted in my last posting. Tyler, meanwhile, is trying that mid-range shot that's still a 50 percent shot at best, and again, at inopportune times. All this appears to be signs of panic and, alternately, hero-seeking. They're either afraid that if they don't get the shot off right then, the team won't get one off at all, or they're trying to be hero for the day by hitting the clutch shot that shows up on SportsCenter. They'd be much bigger heroes to us all if they'd make the smart pass and win the game.
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They don't show up in the not-so-big games - VaTech, NC State, VaTech (again) and Maryland. Four losses. All to teams that were portrayed as being significantly inferior to UNC this year, or, in VaTech's case, for many years. In each case, the team was not a bad one (like Miami or Wake), but rather a team with talent that simply that had struggled this year for whatever reason. VaTech proved that by being at the top of the standings. Maryland is on a five-game winning streak. NC State has young talent, just no depth. But, in each case, UNC walked in thinking, "This will be a 40-point slaughter just like it was against Wake and Miami," only to find out that's not how it always is. That might be an issue in the tournament. If they play a team like Delaware State that just flat-out isn't on the same field as UNC, no biggie. But if they play a team like (grrr) George Mason or VCU — teams that aren't as talented, but will die before they just lay down and give up against UNC — the Heels can kiss a Sweet Sixteen bid goodbye, much less the Final Four.
Now, before you leap down my throat and scream what a traitorous bandwagoner I am, know that I will be looking at this from the glass-half-full perspective tomorrow. Because there are plenty of reasons why this team could win the national championship after all.